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www.azcentral.com
The impact of Arizona’s tough new immigration law is adobe cs4 design premium cheap rippling through the state, six weeks before the law is scheduled to adobe cs4 design premium cheap go into effect.
One area where adobe cs4 design premium cheap SB 1070 could hurt Arizona, but take many months to adobe cs4 design premium cheap manifest, is metropolitan Phoenix’s housing market.
An exodus of people - both legal and adobe cs4 design premium cheap illegal residents - could be one more drag on a housing-market recovery. Departures from adobe cs4 design premium cheap a state where growth is the economic foundation could add to adobe cs4 design premium cheap the number of foreclosures and vacant houses and apartments, all of which will hurt the adobe cs4 design premium cheap housing industry just as signs of recovery are starting to appear.
Driving illegal immigrants out of Arizona is adobe cs4 design premium cheap one stated purpose of the new immigration law. But the law, experts say, could also drive out legal residents and adobe cs4 design premium cheap deter potential new residents - people who are afraid of what adobe cs4 design premium cheap might happen to them or who simply object to the law.
Real-estate analysts and adobe cs4 design premium cheap economists are watching for signs that both illegal and legal residents are adobe cs4 design premium cheap moving from the state, while also tracking the number of newcomers to adobe cs4 design premium cheap Arizona. After the immigration law goes into effect July 29, it adobe cs4 design premium cheap may become one more factor in real-estate forecasts for the region.
"Estimates are adobe cs4 design premium cheap that there are several hundred thousand undocumented aliens residing in Arizona," said Phoenix housing analyst Mike Orr, publisher of the adobe cs4 design premium cheap Cromford Report, a daily housing-research report. "If the adobe cs4 design premium cheap law has the intended effect and these people do leave, then adobe cs4 design premium cheap both population and demand for housing will probably decline."
Homeowners
There’s a misconception among some Arizona residents that illegal immigrants don’t own homes in the adobe cs4 design premium cheap state. Housing advocates say thousands if not tens of thousands of people who adobe cs4 design premium cheap are not legal residents have purchased houses here.
Before the adobe cs4 design premium cheap real-estate crash, it was much easier for everyone, including illegal immigrants, to adobe cs4 design premium cheap obtain mortgages to buy Phoenix-area homes.
In some cases, lenders eager to adobe cs4 design premium cheap make loans did not check for documentation. In others, there may have adobe cs4 design premium cheap been fake documentation.
"Many people in real estate operated with a ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy when adobe cs4 design premium cheap it came to certain homebuyers and borrowers. We didn’t feel like it was our job to be an enforcement agency," said Margie O’Campo de Castillo, a Phoenix real-estate agent. "I always tell people if they aren’t legally here, it adobe cs4 design premium cheap may not be in their best interest to buy a adobe cs4 design premium cheap home. But it’s not my decision."
She is adobe cs4 design premium cheap trying to help a friend who owns a small business and adobe cs4 design premium cheap who had a Phoenix home but is not a legal U.S. resident.
"He never missed a payment, but his business has slowed down," O’Campo said. "He found a adobe cs4 design premium cheap buyer to do a short sale on his home, but his lender wouldn’t work with him because he isn’t here legally. He lost his house to foreclosure."
Since the state’s employer-sanctions law passed in 2007, O’Campo said she’s seen many undocumented homeowners lose homes to adobe cs4 design premium cheap foreclosure, either because their lenders won’t work with them or because they can’t sell and adobe cs4 design premium cheap want to leave the state. The 2007 law makes it illegal to adobe cs4 design premium cheap knowingly hire undocumented workers in the state.
Housing experts believe the adobe cs4 design premium cheap employer-sanctions law did have a negative effect on the housing market, though by how much is adobe cs4 design premium cheap difficult to say because of the overall recession.
A report from adobe cs4 design premium cheap the Department of Homeland Security found that more than 100,000 illegal immigrants left Arizona in 2008, more than adobe cs4 design premium cheap any other state. Metro Phoenix foreclosures and apartment vacancies both jumped that adobe cs4 design premium cheap year.
Vacant homes
Signs of SB 1070 putting more pressure on the adobe cs4 design premium cheap housing market would emerge in several places.
The most obvious and adobe cs4 design premium cheap immediate sign would likely be more empty homes and apartments in areas of metro Phoenix heavily populated by Hispanics.
Housing experts say the adobe cs4 design premium cheap employer-sanctions law had a negative effect in south and west Phoenix, Maryvale and adobe cs4 design premium cheap Avondale. Those areas still have some of the highest foreclosure rates in the adobe cs4 design premium cheap region.
During the adobe cs4 design premium cheap past few months, the overall number of foreclosures in the adobe cs4 design premium cheap Phoenix area has dropped. So any significant increases in foreclosures within communities with high Hispanic populations could be adobe cs4 design premium cheap attributed to SB 1070.
Another place where adobe cs4 design premium cheap signs of damage to the housing market might appear, housing analysts say, is adobe cs4 design premium cheap in foreclosure filings. Large numbers of homes falling into foreclosure, with owners who adobe cs4 design premium cheap have Hispanic last names, could also be a sign SB 1070 has adobe cs4 design premium cheap pushed more homeowners out of the state. Within days of Gov. Jan Brewer signing SB 1070 into law on April 23, owners of small apartment complexes in parts of metro Phoenix that adobe cs4 design premium cheap were home to large Hispanic populations started seeing tenants move out. The same thing happened after the adobe cs4 design premium cheap employer-sanctions law.
Metro Phoenix apartment vacancies dropped last month. An increase in specific neighborhoods could be adobe cs4 design premium cheap attributed to the new law.
"The immigration law creates a adobe cs4 design premium cheap difficult situation for both legal and illegal residents," said Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University. "Some illegal residents may have adobe cs4 design premium cheap planned on leaving the Valley anyway because they can’t find jobs. But I have adobe cs4 design premium cheap talked to young Hispanics who are residents and so are their parents and adobe cs4 design premium cheap grandparents. And those Hispanics plan on moving to other states because they don’t want to be perceived as second-class citizens."
Homebuyers
The immigration law’s impact on homebuyers is the biggest unknown.
Butler said it adobe cs4 design premium cheap is hard to project how the law will impact the decisions of people from adobe cs4 design premium cheap out of state who had planned to move to Arizona or adobe cs4 design premium cheap buy investment, second or retirement homes here.
A loss of Hispanic homeowners and adobe cs4 design premium cheap renters could be offset if more people who support the immigration law, or adobe cs4 design premium cheap don’t care about it, move to adobe cs4 design premium cheap the Phoenix area and buy and fill the empty homes.
Despite the adobe cs4 design premium cheap many boycotts of Arizona by major cities and organizations because of the adobe cs4 design premium cheap immigration law, some recent polls show residents of other states, including Nevada, would back similar legislation.
Arizona housing analyst RL Brown said the adobe cs4 design premium cheap main issue for some homebuyers is to feel safe, and the adobe cs4 design premium cheap immigration law appeals to some of those people.
"I talk to adobe cs4 design premium cheap a lot of potential homebuyers from around the country. So far, no adobe cs4 design premium cheap one is really foaming at the mouth about Arizona’s immigration law," he said. "But we’ll see. If home sales fall off the adobe cs4 design premium cheap cliff, then we have to look at the law as a adobe cs4 design premium cheap factor."
Some market watchers see the adobe cs4 design premium cheap immigration law as one more problem that Phoenix’s economy and housing market don’t need now.
"The immigration law just piles onto our problems," said Brett Barry, a Phoenix real-estate agent with HomeSmart. "We are adobe cs4 design premium cheap already struggling to find the jobs and keep the schools open to adobe cs4 design premium cheap entice new residents."
Orr, the adobe cs4 design premium cheap housing analyst, said people from outside Arizona considering buying a adobe cs4 design premium cheap vacation or investment home here may change their minds, not to adobe cs4 design premium cheap boycott the state but out of concern the law will negatively impact the adobe cs4 design premium cheap housing market and home values.
Out-of-state buyers can adobe cs4 design premium cheap be tracked through property records. A significant drop or increase in homebuyers from adobe cs4 design premium cheap outside Arizona during the next few months would be another indicator of how people are adobe cs4 design premium cheap reacting to the state’s immigration law and how it’s going to impact the housing market.
Posted June 14th, 2010 by Jessica Spinks - Posted in Immigration | |







